lotokeno| Alumina futures prices continue to rise: Guoxin Futures predicts the risk of high shocks, while Soochow Futures is optimistic that aluminum prices will remain high

Newsletter summary

The main contract of alumina futures rose to 3629 on April 25th.Lotokeno.0 yuanLotokeno, up 4.19%. It is difficult for domestic alumina plants to resume production and supply is tight. Guinean bauxite production and exports have increased for three consecutive years. The agency expects increased demand, tight balance of alumina, high electrolytic aluminum prices, rising spot prices, bullish market sentiment, and guard against the risk of falling high.

Text of news flash

Alumina futures prices soared 4.19% April 25, alumina futures market ushered in a strong rise, the main contract price rose to 3629.0 yuan / ton, up 4.19% from the previous trading day. At present, the production cost of alumina is 2749.2 yuan / ton, which makes the market profit reach 584.8 yuan / ton. At present, domestic alumina plants are facing the problem of increasing production, which is mainly due to the lack of a significant increase in the supply of domestic minerals. Most of the mines in Shanxi and Henan have not returned to normal production due to a variety of factors, while relying on imported mines to increase production has problems in equipment adjustment and alumina quality stability. Guinea, the largest producer of bauxite in Africa, increased its bauxite production and exports for the third year in a row in 2023. Bauxite is an important raw material for refining alumina, and alumina is the key to the production of aluminum products needed for energy transformation. Soochow futures analysis pointed out that due to the shortage of bauxite supply in the domestic alumina market, domestic alumina plants mainly rely on imported ore to resume production, but the inflow of imported ore is uncertain. With the continuous resumption of downstream electrolytic aluminum production, the market demand is increasing, and the overall supply of alumina maintains a tight balance. In the electrolytic aluminum market, driven by the gradual stabilization of the macro environment and the logic of re-inflation, aluminum ingot inventories declined on Monday, downstream demand showed strong resilience, and aluminum prices are expected to operate at high levels. Guoxin Futures pointed out that due to the sharp rise in the price of alumina futures and the opening of the arbitrage window, there is a gradual shortage of negotiable cash in the market. In the past two days, there have been more than two days of spot rising water transactions, and the average spot price has risen significantly. Although alumina supply is expected to increase, it is still affected by ore supply constraints. The current tension in the spot market and market bullish sentiment are pushing futures prices stronger. At night, the main contract position of alumina increased significantly, reaching more than 69000 hands. Market participants need to pay close attention to changes in market sentiment and guard against the risk of high-level pullback.