reelryobismurf500|中金：乐观情形下港股还有约20%的上涨空间

Transferred from: financial Union

China International Capital Corporation research newspaper pointed out that in just two weeks, the Hong Kong stock market has recovered since September last year.Reelryobismurf500The Hang Seng Index broke through 18000 points, leading the global market higher. The scale and speed of this rebound has greatly exceeded market expectations and aroused widespread concern, so what is the reason behind the surge? Why the recent large inflows of foreign capital? How much space and continuity are there? After a rise of nearly 13 per cent in just two weeks (Hang Seng Technology is up more than 18 per cent), how much room do Hong Kong stocks have?

First, why is the market soaring? Why does foreign capital inflow? The demand for rebalancing under fluctuations in external markets is most obvious in emerging markets and Asia with the exception of Japanese funds. Transactional capital return and short selling cover do account for a certain proportion, local and regional allocation funds also return, but it is difficult to confirm whether it is the main force. Some of the main positions are still in the Asia-Pacific region and emerging markets, and there is also a need for local and regional funds to rebalance their positions. By contrast, the re-inflow of long-term funds into the Chinese market from Europe and the United States often needs to see more signs of stabilizing fundamentals, not just because of external market fluctuations.

Second, how much room is there for the inflow of foreign capital? Regional rebalancing funds are more due to external fluctuations, while the return of more long-term funds needs to be based on improved fundamentals. 1) if all the sustained outflows since the first quarter of this year were returned, it would correspond to $4.9 billion, equivalent to 17 per cent of outflows from highs in 2021 and 26 per cent since 2023. 2) if the proportion of global funds allocated to the Chinese market returns to the standard allocation, it will bring an inflow of US $42.1 billion.

Third, how much room is left for Hong Kong stocks? Risk premium is the main contribution, short-term emotional overdraftReelryobismurf500There may be 2-7% room for mood improvement alone. This round of market is mainly driven by the valuation pushed up by the capital side. After the recent rapid rise, the short-term overdraft is obvious. 1) if the risk premium falls back to the levels seen in the middle of last year and the beginning of last year, it corresponds to about 2-7% of the space, respectively. 2) if the follow-up policy continues to make efforts, it will promote a profit growth of 10% in an optimistic situation, corresponding to an increase of about 20%.